![]() ![]() When bars were initially green and yellow during the beginnings of Morsi’s Presidency (scroll left on the dashboard for the earlier dates). The original screenshot in Arabic is available here (PNG).Įach bar above corresponds to a week of Twitter data analysis. Note that I used Chrome’s translate feature to convert hashtags from Arabic to English. “ Quite strikingly, all outbreaks of violence happened during periods where the hashtag polarity was comparatively high.” This also true for the events of the past week, as evidenced by QCRI’s political polarization dashboard below. In sum, the graph confirms that the political polarization hashtag can serve as a barometer for social tensions and perhaps even early warnings of violence. H,I – Massive demonstrations in Tahrir and removal of President Morsi. Clashes take place between protestors and Muslim Brotherhood supporters.Ĭ, D – Continuing protests after the November 22nd declaration.Į – Demonstrations in Tahrir square, Port Said and all across the country. The spike in political polarization towards the end of 2011 appears to coincide with “the political struggle over the constitution and a planned referendum on the topic.” The annotations in the graph refer to the following violent events:Ī – Assailants with rocks and firebombs gather outside Ministry of Defense to call for an end to military rule.ī – Demonstrations break out after President Morsi grants himself increased power to protect the nation. As you’ll note, the graph includes the very latest data published today. The graph below displays the overall hashtag polarity over time along with the number of distinct hashtags used per time interval. The methodology used to create this index is described in more detail in this post’s epilogue. ![]() ![]() QCRI compared the hashtags used by Egyptian Islamists and secularists over a year to create an insightful Political Polarization Index. Ingmar, Kiran and Alaa have also analyzed users with no location information, corresponding to 65 million tweets and 20,000+ unique users. Below are word clouds of terms used in Twitter profiles created by Islamists (left) and secularists (right). ![]() Note that both figures are limits imposed by the Twitter API. These user lists were largely drawn from this previous research and only include users that provide geographical information in their Twitter profiles. For each of these 7,000+ “seed users”, QCRI researchers downloaded their most recent 3,200 tweets along with a set of 200 users who retweet their posts. The QCRI team analyzed some 17 million Egyptian tweets posted by two types of Twitter users-Secularists and Islamists. I will keep updating this post with new data, analysis and graphs over the next 24 hours. Specifically, they developed a Political Polarization Index that provides early warning signals for increased social tensions and violence. Can Twitter provide early warning signals of growing political tension in Egypt and elsewhere? My QCRI colleagues Ingmar Weber & Kiran Garimella and Al-Jazeera colleague Alaa Batayneh have been closely monitoring (PDF) these upheavals via Twitter since January 2013. On Wednesday, the Egyptian Military responded to the large-scale demonstrations against President Morsi by removing him from power. This was true of Hurricane Sandy, for example, and is also true of the widespread protests in Egypt this week. Large-scale events leave an unquestionable mark on social media. ![]()
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